| 摘要: |
| 为揭示气候要素和品种及管理措施变化对冬小麦和夏玉米生育期的影响，利用1980-2014年河南省30个冬小麦站点和18个夏玉米站点的物候观测资料和逐日气象资料，通过一阶差分结合逐步回归的方法分析生长季温度、降水和辐射3个气候要素变化以及品种及管理措施变化对冬小麦、夏玉米全生育期和各生育阶段长度的影响。结果表明：1）河南省冬小麦返青期推迟，拔节、抽穗和成熟期提前；返青-拔节期、拔节-抽穗期分别缩短了4.8±1.9和3.3±0.9 d/10年，抽穗-成熟期延长了2.3±0.8 d/10年，全生育期长度无显著变化趋势。夏玉米大部分站点物候期变化趋势不显著；44%的站点全生育期延长，主要表现在抽雄-成熟期延长2.5±1.4 d/10年。2）冬小麦生长季温度升高，33%的站点降水减少，总辐射无显著变化趋势；气候要素变化主要发生在返青-拔节期。夏玉米生长季温度升高的站点占39%，降水量无显著变化趋势，39%的站点日均总辐射减少；温度升高主要发生在出苗-拔节期，日均总辐射减少主要发生在出苗-拔节期和抽雄-成熟期。3）冬小麦全生育期长度对温度、降水和辐射变化均较敏感，夏玉米全生育期长度对温度和辐射变化敏感。温度、降水和日均总辐射变化使河南省冬小麦全生育期平均缩短了6.3±4.2 d/10年，使夏玉米全生育期平均缩短了0.8±0.9 d/10年；而品种等其他因素使冬小麦和夏玉米全生育期分别延长了5.2±5.4和2.6±2.6 d/10年。气候要素变化缩短了河南省冬小麦和夏玉米的生育期，品种及管理措施等因素改变减缓了气候的负作用。但是各要素变化对河南省冬小麦、夏玉米全生育期、各生育阶段长度的影响仍存在较大的不确定性。 |
| 关键词: 冬小麦 生育期 气候要素 品种 夏玉米 河南省 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2019.11.03 |
| 投稿时间：2019-04-15 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划（2016YFD0300105）；中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室开放基金项目（AMF201905） |
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| Effects of change in climatic factors,cultivar shifts and agronomic management practices on the growth duration of winter wheat and summer maize in Henan Province |
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HU Xunyu1,2, WANG Jing1
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| (1.College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;2.East China Inventory and Planning Institute, State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Hangzhou 310019, China) |
| Abstract: |
| The impacts of change in three climatic factors,cultivar and other agronomic management practices change on growth duration of winter wheat and summer maize in Henan Province were analyzed based on crop phenology data from 30 winter wheat and 18 summer maize agro-meteorological observational stations during 1980-2014.The first difference and stepwise regression methods were adopted in this study.The results showed that 1) The reviving date of winter wheat was delayed during 1980-2014,while the jointing,heading and maturity dates were advanced.The growing periods from the reviving to jointing and from the jointing to heading were shortened by 4.8±1.9 and 3.3±0.9 d/10 a respectively.The growing period from the heading to maturity was prolonged by 2.3±0.8 d/10 a.The whole growth duration of winter wheat did not change significantly in most stations of Henan Province.There was also no significant change in phenological phases of summer maize in a majority of agro-meteorological observation stations.The whole growth duration of summer maize was prolonged at 44% of the stations.The growing period from tasseling to maturity was prolonged by 2.5±1.4 d/10 a.2) The temperature increased in winter wheat growing season during 1980-2014.Precipitation decreased at 33% of the study stations.Moreover,there was no significant change in winter wheat growing season average daily solar radiation.During the growing period from reviving to jointing,the mean temperature and averaged daily solar radiation increased,while precipitation in the growing period decreased.During summer maize growing season,the mean temperature increased at 39% of the study stations.However,the growing season averaged daily solar radiation decreased at 39% of study stations.There was no significant change trend in growing season precipitation.During the growing period from the emergence to jointing,mean temperature increased.However,the averaged daily solar radiation during the growing period from the emergence to jointing and from the heading to maturity decreased.3) The length of growth duration of winter wheat was sensitive to changes in temperature,precipitation and solar radiation.The length of growth duration of summer maize was sensitive to changes in temperature and solar radiation.In general,changes of temperature,precipitation and averaged daily solar radiation shortened the whole growth duration of winter wheat and summer maize by 6.3±4.2 and 0.8±0.9 d/10 a,respectively.Cultivar shifts and change in agronomic management practices prolonged the whole growth duration of winter wheat and summer maize by 5.2±5.4 and 2.6±2.6 d/10 a.The results revealed that climatic factors change shortened growth duration of both winter wheat and summer maize.However,cultivar shifts and change in agronomic management practices compensated the negative effect induced by climate change.There was uncertainty in the impacts of climatic factors,cultivar shifts and change in agronomic management practices on the growing periods of winter wheat and summer maize in Henan Province.The study provides an important reference in adapting to climate change and arranging crop growth season rationally. |
| Key words: winter wheat growing season climatic factors variety summer maize Henan Province |
