| 摘要: |
| 利用来自湖北省公安县、枝江市等10个代表地区847个稻农的调研数据，运用Binary probit模型的计量经济分析方法，对农户气候变化适应性行为实施的偏向特征及影响因素展开研究。结论表明：农户实施劳动偏向型气候变化适应性行为的比例最高，且超过65%，而实施技术偏向型气候变化适应性行为比例最低；气候变化感知、土地转入、户主性别、家庭农业劳动力、接受生产培训等因素对农户实施不同要素偏向型的气候适应性行为产生显著影响，其中，感知到降雨越来越不规律的农户比未感知到的农户在实施劳动和技术偏向型气候适应性行为的概率上分别高出29.1%和18.8%，发生土地转入的农户实施劳动和技术偏向型气候适应性行为的概率要比未发生土地流转的农户高出10.9%和7.5%。最后提出了降低适应气候的制度成本、拓宽气候信息服务路径等政策建议。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化适应 偏向特征 稻农 Binary probit模型 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2019.01.23 |
| 投稿时间：2018-03-15 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（41501213）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目（2662017PY045）；教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目（15JZD014） |
|
| An analysis of oriented characteristics and influential factors of farmers' adaptation to climate change in 10 representative counties and cities of Hubei Province |
|
TONG Qingmeng1,2, ZHANG Lu1,2, ZHANG Junbiao1,2
|
| (1.College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China;2.Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Based on the field survey of 847 rice farmers from 10 representative counties (cities) including Wuxue and Zhijiang in Hubei Province, this study used the econometrical analytic method of binary probit model to study the oriented characteristics and influential factors of farmers' adaptation to climate change. The conclusions revealed that farmers had the highest proportion of labor-oriented climate change adaptive behavior, which accounted for more than 65%. While the proportion of technology-oriented climate change adaptive behavior was the lowest and was accounting for less than a half. Besides, climate change perception, land renting, gender of the household head, family farming labors, production training and other factors had various and significant impacts on farmers' implementation of different characteristic-oriented climate adaptive behaviors. Among them, as for labor-oriented and technology-oriented adaptive behaviors, farmers who perceived the irregular rainfall had 29.1% and 18.8% of higher probabilities of implementation respectively than who didn't perceive, and those who rented the land had 10.9% and 7.5% of higher probabilities of implementation as to the two adaptation behaviors. Finally, policies and suggestions such as reducing the institutional cost of adapting to climate change and broadening the route of climate information were put forwarded in this study. |
| Key words: climate change adaptation oriented characteristics rice farmers binary probit model |
