| 摘要: |
| 为探索生计风险对农户风险应对策略的作用关系，制定相关的政策措施以帮助农户在日常的生产和生活过程中更有效地应对生计风险。本研究以石羊河流域为例，通过半结构式农户调查，在分别确定农户生计风险评估体系及典型风险应对策略的基础上，采取熵权法定量评估石羊河流域不同区域农户所面临的生计风险，并通过建立多元Probit回归模型，定量测度生计风险对农户风险应对策略的影响作用。结果表明：1）健康风险、环境风险、金融风险、社会风险和信息风险已成为石羊河流域农户所面临的主要生计风险，但不同区域农户面临的生计风险存在差异；2）"贷款"、"外出务工"和"减少消费"是石羊河流域农户选择较多且首选的主要风险应对策略；3）健康风险、环境风险、金融风险、社会风险和信息风险对农户风险应对策略的影响是显著的。当地政府与管理部门为了更好地控制生计风险，保障农户的可持续生计，需要引导农户扩大生计途径、提高农户自身应对生计风险的能力，并构建生计风险预警体系与防范机制促使农户在面临不同生计风险时做出合理并有效地应对策略。 |
| 关键词: 可持续生计 生计风险 风险应对策略 石羊河流域 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2018.10.26 |
| 投稿时间：2017-11-30 |
| 基金项目:陕西省"千人计划"青年项目；国家自然科学基金青年项目（41401653）；国家社会科学基金西部项目（17XJY018）；教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目（16YJAZH051）；陕西省自然科学基础研究计划（2013JQ9005） |
|
| Research on the effect of livelihood risk on risk-coping strategies |
|
SU Fang1, TIAN Xin2, ZHENG Yaping3
|
| (1.School of Economics and Management, Shaanxi University of Science & Technology, Xi'an 710021, China;2.Lanzhou Information Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;3.School of Economics and Management, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou 730000, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to help farmers deal with livelihood risk more effectively in their daily process of production and life, the role of livelihood risk on risk-coping strategies was explored in this study. Using information collected through semi-structures interview in 483 households in Shiyang river basin in China, this study identified the effect of livelihood risk on livelihood strategies. By the establishment of index system with livelihood risk evaluated by Entropy Method and livelihood strategies, its effect was measured by use of Multinomial Probit Regression. The results from indicated that:1) Health risk, Environmental risk, Financial risk, Social risk, Information and connectivity risk had become main livelihood risk problem faced by farmers in Shiyang river basin. However there was a significant difference existed in different regions; 2) The main risk-coping strategies, which were preferred and chosen more by local farmers are ‘Use loans’, ‘Go out to work’ and ‘Reduce consumption’; 3) Health risk, environmental risk, financial risk, social risk, information and connectivity risk presented a significant correlation with the option of livelihood strategies. The health risk had a negative impact on ‘Letting children drop out of school’ and a positive impact on ‘Go out to work’; The environmental risk had a positive impact on ‘Convert assets into cash’, ‘Use loans’, ‘Reduce consumption’, ‘Let children drop out of school’ and ‘Go out to work’; The financial risk showed a negative impact on ‘Reduce consumption’ and ‘Let children drop out of school’; The social risk had a positive impact on ‘Reduce consumption’; Information and connectivity risk had a positive impact on ‘Convert assets into cash’, ‘Use loans’ and ‘Go out to work’; ‘Distance from the county’ had a negative impact on ‘Use loans’ and ‘Go out to work’ and has a positive impact on ‘Reducing consumption’. In order to control livelihood risks and ensure farmers' sustainable livelihoods more effectively, findings presented in this study could be used for evidence-based policies on introducing farmers to resist livelihood risk more reasonably, enhancing their livelihood approach to improve their capacities and improving their well-being, at the same time constructing early warning system and prevention mechanism, which could help to form efficacious security mechanism against livelihood risks. |
| Key words: sustainable livelihood livelihood risk risk-coping strategies Shiyang river basin |
