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| 大型城市展会地气象因子变化特征研究——以2019北京世界园艺博览会为例 |
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王爽1, 黄天骄1, 肖影慧1, 冯达2, 王彦涛1, 魏燕1, 翟泽峰1, 彭翔1, 李天红1,3
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| (1.中国农业大学 园艺学院, 北京 100193;2.北京世界园艺博览会事务协调局, 北京 100083;3.北京林果业生态环境功能提升协同创新中心, 北京 102206) |
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| 摘要: |
| 利用2019年北京世界园艺博览会所在地北京延庆站（54406站）1961—2014年的逐日气候观测材料，对逐日气温、降水量、相对湿度、日照时数和风速进行月平均、年平均和年较差的年际变化分析，并做出年平均气温年际变化、极端温度年际变化和降水量年际变化等曲线；同时利用1961—2014与2000—2014年2个时间段的气象要素趋势变化，采用最小二乘法拟合一元线性回归方程，分别对2019年该地区的各气象因子进行了预测。根据预测结果显示，2019北京世园会所在地区的年平均气温值在10.0℃左右，极端高温为35.03~36.21℃，极端低温为-18.16~-19.51℃，活动积温为3 806.65~3 858.10（℃·d），积温天数为195~196 d，年日照时数为2 545.93~2 708.65 h，年降水量为411.11~466.35 mm，日最大降雨量为37.00~45.65 mm，相对湿度为52.80%~55.57%，平均风速为1.34~1.44 m/s，最大风速为9.99~10.56 m/s。相关结果为园艺园林植物的引种、配置布局、栽植养护和自然灾害天气的预警预测提供科学依据。 |
| 关键词: 气象因子 回归分析 预估 北京世界园艺博览会 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2018.10.23 |
| 投稿时间：2017-12-14 |
| 基金项目:林业公益性行业科研专项经费项目（201404720）；北京市科技计划项目（D16110000716002） |
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| Characteristics of meteorological factors in large city exposition area: A case study of 2019 Beijing International Horticulture Exposition |
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WANG Shuang1, HUANG Tianjiao1, XIAO Yinghui1, FENG Da2, WANG Yantao1, WEI Yan1, ZHAI Zefeng1, PENG Xiang1, LI Tianhong1,3
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| (1.College of Horticulture, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;2.Bureau of Beijing International Horticulture Exposition Coordination, Beijing 100083, China;3.Beijing Collaborative Innovation Center for Eco-Environmental Improvement with Forestry and Fruit Trees, Beijing 102206, China) |
| Abstract: |
| The daily climate observation materials of Yanqing Met.station (54406 station), which is located at Beijing International Horticultural Exposition in 2019, are adopted to analyze the monthly average, annual average and annual difference of daily temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, sunshine hours and wind speed. The curves of annual temperature inter-annual variation, extreme temperature inter-annual variation, annual precipitation inter-annual variation are calculated by the statistics, and the linear regression equation of the least square method is used to fit the same element during 1961 to 2014 and 2000 to 2014. The meteorological factors of this area in 2019 are pre-evaluated respectively. According to the evaluation results, the annual average temperature in the 2019 Beijing Exposition area is about 10℃, the extreme temperature is 35.03 to 36.21℃, and the extreme low temperature is -18.16 to -19.51℃, the active accumulated temperature is 3 806.65 to 3 858.10(℃·d), accumulated temperature of 195 to 196 d, the number of sunshine hours for the Year 2 545.93 to 2 708.65 h. The annual rainfall is 411.11 to 466.35 mm, the maximum rainfall of the day for the 37.00 to 45.65 mm, the relative humidity is 52.80% to 55.57%, and the average wind speed of 1.34 to 1.44 m/s. The maximum wind speed is 9.99 to 10.56 m/s. These results would provide scientific basis for the introduction, distribution, planting and maintenance of horticultural plants and prediction of natural disaster weather. |
| Key words: meteorological factor regression analysis forecast Beijing International Horticultural Exposition |
