| 摘要: |
| 为针对未来气候变化及其对农业可能的影响，提出适应性对策建议，应用第5次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中5个GCMs和3种RCPs在全球1.5和2.0℃升温下的预估结果，分析安徽省未来气候变化特征，利用气象干旱综合指数（MCI）预估未来气象干旱时空格局演变，并量化评估的不确定性。结果表明：未来安徽省呈现趋于暖湿的变化特征，在全球相对于工业化前1.5和2.0℃升温背景下，预估全省年平均温度较工业化前分别升高1.8和2.3℃，升温幅度均高于全球平均；年降水量略有增加，年高温日数增多，而暴雨日数在全球1.5℃升温下增加而2.0℃升温期减少。未来安徽省气象干旱化趋势将持续并加重，其中干季更明显，并且全球2.0℃升温下增加更多，干旱日数的变幅与降水类似。未来气候变化不会改变月干旱分布特征，气象干旱频次以秋旱最多，夏旱次之，冬、春旱较少。未来降水量和气象干旱预估都存在较大的不确定性，在全球2.0℃升温下不确定性更大，不确定性主要来源于GCMs。为适应或缓解气候变化的不利影响，应通过调整农业布局、加强农业基础设施建设、选育新品种等方式以抵御气候变化的能力。 |
| 关键词: 全球升温 气候变化 气象干旱预估 安徽省 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2018.06.12 |
| 投稿时间：2017-08-24 |
| 基金项目:公益性收（气象）科研专项（GYHY201506001）；中国气象局气侯变化专项（CCSF201832） |
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| Estimated projections in climate change and meteorological drought in Anhui Province under 1.5 and 2.0℃ global warming based on RCP |
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WANG Sheng1, XU Hongmei2, YANG Wei1, ZHANG Xuan3
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| (1.Anhui Climate Center, Hefei 230031, China;2.National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;3.Bengbu Meteorological Service of Anhui Province, Bengbu 233000, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Aiming at the possible effect of climate change on agriculture, adaption to mitigate the negative effects needs to be addressed.The climate change and meteorological drought projections under 1.5 and 2.0℃ global warming in Anhui Province are quantified using meteorological drought composite index (MCI) by 5 general circulation models (GCMs) under 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of the fifth coupling model comparison scheme (CMIP5).At the same time, the uncertainties of estimated impacts from GCMs structure and RCPs scenarios are estimated and compared quantitatively further.The results indicate that there is a trend of warm and humid Anhui Province will tend to be in the future.The annual average temperature of Anhui province will increase by 1.8 and 2.3℃ compared to pre-industrial under 1.5 and 2.0℃ global warming respectively.The warming magnitude will be higher than the global average.High temperature events will increase substantially, while the rainstorm events will increase under 1.5℃ global warming period and decrease at 2.0℃.Analysis on future changes indicates that the meteorological drought will continue and aggravate, and this will be more profound in the dry season compared with the wet season.The drought events will increase dramatically under global warming, especially under 2.0℃ global warming.The ensemble mean annual meteorological drought events will increase consistent with the increased precipitation under 1.5 and 2.0℃ global warming.The estimated monthly meteorological drought events distribution could be unchanged with the drought events in autumn ranks the first, in summer the second and in winter and spring the least.There are big uncertainties in estimated precipitation and drought events, especially under 2.0℃ global warming period, which constrained mainly by GCMs structure.To adapt or mitigate these negative effects, the ability to combat climate change by adjusting the layout of agriculture, strengthening the construction of agricultural infrastructure and breeding new varieties. |
| Key words: global warming climate change meteorological drought Anhui Province |
