| 摘要: |
| 为解析影响沧州市农业水足迹增长的驱动因素，本研究利用水足迹评价和灰色关联度分析的方法，计算并分析沧州市农业水足迹的结构、利用和产出效率及其时空分布。结果表明：1994—2014年沧州市农业水足迹持续增长，21年增长1.63倍。在农业水足迹中，种植业水足迹所占的比重最大，畜牧业水足迹的总量和占农业水足迹的比重持续增长；水足迹构成分析表明，沧州市蓝水足迹所占比重最大，说明农业用水中灌溉水尤其是抽取的地下水占主体地位，沧州的农业生产特别是种植业生产严重依赖地下水资源。农业水足迹在空间上分布差异明显，中部县市高于北部和南部县市；沧州各县市的农业水足迹利用效率与产出效率也呈增长趋势，单位水足迹创造产值持续上升；灰色关联分析表明，有效灌溉面积比例、耕地复种指数和农村人口是农业水足迹关联度最高的3个驱动因子。 |
| 关键词: 水足迹 沧州市 驱动因素 灰色关联分析 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2018.06.01 |
| 投稿时间：2017-06-15 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划（2016YFD0300201） |
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| Variation characteristics and driving factors of agriculture water footprint in Cangzhou City |
|
JIA Hao, LI Shuo, SONG Yingjie, SHANG Mengfei, SHI Xiaoyu, ZHANG Hailin, CHEN Fu, CHU Qingquan
|
| (College of Agronomy and Biotechnology/Key Laboratory of Farming System of Ministry of Agriculture, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to provide scientific references and theoretical basis for agricultural sustainable development and sustainable utilization of water resources in Cangzhou City, the methods of water footprint assessment and gray correlation analysis were applied to calculate and analyze the driving factors of agriculture water footprint increasing.Structure, variation characteristics, utilization efficiency, output efficiency and spatial-temporal distribution were considered as driving factors.The results indicated that the agriculture water footprint in Cangzhou City during 1994 to 2004 was increased 1.63 times more than that in 1994.Among which plantation took the largest proportion, and livestock husbandry's total amount and proportion increased continuously.Constitution analysis of water footprint indicated that blue water footprint took the largest proportion of agriculture water footprint in Cangzhou City, showing that irrigation water especially extracted groundwater occupied the dominant position of agricultural water consumption, and agricultural production especially plantation of Cangzhou City relied heavily on groundwater resources.The discrepancy of spatial distribution was apparently different, agriculture water footprint of counties and county-level cities in central were higher in north than those in south.The utilization efficiency and output efficiency of agriculture water footprint in counties and county-level cities of Cangzhou City increased, and specific water footprint production value increased continuously too.The conclusion of gray correlation analysis displayed that the ratio of effective irrigated area, multiple cropping index, and rural population were the driving factors of agricultural water footprint. |
| Key words: water footprint Cangzhou City driving factors gray relational analysis |
