| 摘要: |
| 市场风险是农户生产经营中面临的重要风险，主要表现为农产品价格波动对其收益的影响程度。为探索农户市场风险规避能力，利用8省1 047份问卷调查数据，构建多元有序Logit模型对其影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明：农户市场风险规避能力整体偏弱。在影响农户市场风险规避能力的销售、生产、个人、收入、区域等特征因素中，鸡蛋议价权、购销合同、同行竞争、家庭收入满意度、打工比较收益、东部地区和性别具有显著正向作用；信息渠道、蛋鸡存栏和决策首要因素具有显著负向作用。据此建议，主管部门可通过增强农户市场预判能力、提高农户组织化程度、引导适度规模经营等方式提高农户市场风险规避能力。 |
| 关键词: 农户 市场风险 规避能力 价格波动 Logit模型 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2018.02.21 |
| 投稿时间：2017-02-20 |
| 基金项目:现代农业产业技术体系建设（CARS-41-K26） |
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| Analysis of farmers' market risk avoidance ability and influencing factors: Based on 1 047 questionnaires of laying hens raising farmers in 8 province |
|
ZHOU Rongzhu, QIN Fu
|
| (Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Market risk is a significant risk faced by farmers in production and operation,which reflects the impact of price volatility on agricultural products income.In order to explore farmers' market risk aversion ability,multivariate ordered Logit model was used to conduct empirical analysis on influencing factors based on the data collected from 1 047 questionnaires in 8 provinces.The conclusions were as follows:Farmers' market risk avoidance ability on the whole was weak.Among characteristic factors such as sales,production,personal,income,regional and others affecting farmers' market risk avoidance ability,bargaining power of egg,purchase and sale contracts,peer competition,income satisfaction,working income comparison,east region and gender had significant negative effect;Information channels,stock of laying hens and primary factor of decisions had significant positive effect.According to this study,the competent authorities could enhance farmers' ability to prejudge market,improve the degree of organization of farmers,guide farmers to operate at appropriate scale and discover other ways to improve the farmers' ability to avoid market risk. |
| Key words: farmers market risk avoidance ability price fluctuation Logit model |
