| 摘要: |
| 为探索高原湖泊平坝区农村居民点空间格局演变状况，利用核密度、缓冲区及土地利用变化动态度等方法，从村域视角对2006-2015年大理市海西地区农村居民点空间格局的演变特征及类型进行了研究，并通过构建GM（1，1）模型预测了该区2015-2024年居民点空间格局的演变趋势。结果表明：海西地区农村居民点空间分布呈现出由"多点高值集中"向"带状中高值集中"变动的态势，单位面积范围内分布密度明显提升；区位布局受地形环境及交通通达度影响减弱，而受"亲水性"影响增强；基于村域居民点用地动态度值，综合考虑旅游、交通、城镇等因素影响，将该区居民点空间格局的演变分为自然、加速及剧烈三大类。2015-2024年，村均居民点用地面积及村域间用地动态度差异均将缩小，正向演变型村庄将明显减少并向南部乡镇集聚，而负向演变型村庄将大幅增加并显著向中北部扩散，居民点空间格局将以加速负向演变型村庄为主。 |
| 关键词: 农村居民点 空间格局 GM（1，1）模型 大理市海西地区 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2018.02.16 |
| 投稿时间：2017-05-03 |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金重大项目（16ZDA041）；国家自然科学基金项目（41261044、41601179） |
|
| Spatial pattern evolution and prediction of rural settlement in Plateau Lake Plain Area: A case in Haixi District of Dali |
|
ZHANG Lei1, WU Youde2,3, LI Jun4
|
| (1.School of Tourism and Geographic Science, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China;2.Yunnan Chinese Language and Culture College, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China;3.Collaborative Innovation Center for Geopolitical Setting of Southwest China and Borderland Development, Kunming 650500, China;4.School of Economics and Management, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China) |
| Abstract: |
| To explore the spatial pattern evolution of rural settlement in Plateau Lake Plain Area,based on the methods of kernel density,buffer zone and the dynamic degree of land use change,the characteristics and types of spatial pattern evolution of rural settlement in Haixi district of Dali from the perspective of village domain in 2006-2015 are analyzed.And the trend of spatial pattern evolution of rural settlement in 2015-2024 is predicted by constructing GM(1,1) model.The results indicate that:The spatial distribution of rural settlement in Haixi presents a trend of changing from "multiple points of high concentration" to "stripped of middle and high concentration",and the distribution density of rural settlement in the unit area is significantly improved.The location of rural settlement is highly influenced by the distance from Erhai Lake and lessened the affected of terrain environment and traffic accessibility.Based on the dynamic value of residential land use in rural areas,and by comprehensive consideration the impact of tourism,transportation,urban and other factors,the evolution of rural settlement spatial pattern in this area can be divided into three categories:Natural evolution,accelerated evolution and dramatic evolution.In 2015-2024,both the average rural settlement land area in each village and inter village land use dynamic degree difference will be reduced.The number of positive evolution villages will be significantly reduced and concentrated in the southern townships,while the negative evolution villages will increase sharply and significantly spread to the north central regions.The spatial pattern of rural settlement will give priority to the accelerating negative evolution villages. |
| Key words: rural settlement spatial pattern GM(1,1) model Haixi District of Dali |
