| 摘要: |
| 在气候变化和水资源短缺背景下，河北低平原地区冬小麦生产面临着巨大挑战。本研究以沧州市吴桥县为例，分析该地区1981-2015年冬小麦生育期内各项气象因素变化特征，采用SIMETAW模型模拟冬小麦各生育期需水量变化，分析冬小麦各生育阶段的水分生态适应性，提出影响冬小麦各生育阶段需水量的重要气象因素。结果表明：近35年来，气温是冬小麦生育期内变化最为显著的气象因素，其中最低气温呈极显著上升趋势，增幅为0.41℃/10 a，平均气温呈显著上升趋势，增温幅度为0.27℃/10 a；其次是降雨量的变化，冬小麦生育期内降雨量历年来呈增加趋势，每10年增加6.06 mm；其他气象因素均呈不显著上升趋势。在上述气候变化背景下，冬小麦生育期内需水量近35年总体呈上升趋势，其中1981-1998年需水量呈下降趋势，1998-2015年呈上升趋势；冬小麦3个生长阶段（播种~越冬、返青~拔节、孕穗~成熟）的需水量均为上升趋势，其中拔节~返青阶段需水量显著高于其他2个生育阶段，且水分生态适应性最差，降水耦合度多年平均仅为17.84%。影响冬小麦各生育阶段需水量的气象因素有所不同，其中影响冬小麦返青~拔节阶段需水量的主要因素包括空气相对湿度（-）、最高气温（+）、平均风速（+）、太阳辐射（+）、最低气温（+）。根据回归方程，预测吴桥县冬小麦生育期需水量在2020和2030年分别为466.7和472.6 mm。本研究结果将为河北低平原地区冬小麦节水种植制度构建提供理论依据。 |
| 关键词: 冬小麦 气候变化 需水量 生态适应性 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2017.12.01 |
| 投稿时间：2017-07-10 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2016YFD0300201） |
|
| Impact of climate change on crop evapotranspiration and water ecological adaptability of winter wheat in Hebei lowland plain |
|
DU Ling1, XU Changchun2, YIN Xiaogang1, TI Jinsong1, CHEN Fu1
|
| (1.College of Agronomy/Key Laboratory of Farming System of Ministry of Agriculture, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;2.Science and Technology Development Center, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100122, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In the context of climate changes and water shortages,winter wheat production in Hebei lowland plain is facing critical challenges.Meteorological factors during winter wheat growth stages at Wuqiao in Hebei lowland plain from 1981 to 2015 were analyzed,and SIMETAW model was employed to simulate water demand of winter wheat.The water ecological adaptability in winter wheat different growth stages was estimated,and the relatively important meteorological factors affected crop evapotranspiration in corresponding growth stages were proposed.The results showed that:Over the past 35 years,temperature was the most significant changing factor during winter wheat growth stage,of which the lowest temperature increased highly significantly by 0.41℃/10 a and the average temperature increased significantly by 0.27℃/10 a.Rainfall,the second most changing factor,rose by 6.06 mm/10 a in these years.Other four meteorological factors displayed similar un-significant increasing trend.Under the above climate changes,the crop evapotranspiration of winter wheat during growth stage showed slightly increasing trend in total,more specifically,it was declined in 1981-1998 and increased afterward.Water demand was increased during three growth stages (Sowing to Wintering,Reviving to Jointing,Booting to Ripening).Among which,crop evapotranspiration in Reviving to Jointing was significantly higher than the other two stages,and the water ecological adaptability in this stages was the worst,which was only 17.84% on average.The meteorological effectors on crop evapotranspiration in different growth stages were various:From Reviving to Jointing,the effective factors were air relative humidity (-),the highest temperature (+),average wind speed (+),solar radiation (+) and the lowest temperature (+).By using regression equation,the crop evapotranspiration of winter wheat in 2020 and 2030 were predicted in this study,which were 466.7 and 472.6 mm respectively.This study would provide theoretical basis for winter wheat's water conservation system construction in Hebei lowland plain. |
| Key words: winter wheat climate change crop evapotranspiration ecological adaptability |
