| 摘要: |
| 为深入探索财政支农支出对粮食产出的影响规律，利用我国2000-2013年31个省份的面板数据样本，基于门槛模型对市场化背景下财政支农支出对我国粮食产出的影响及其区域差异进行了实证分析。结果表明：1）财政支农支出对粮食产出的影响受市场化水平的严重制约，表现出显著的非线性，存在双门槛效应，2个市场化门槛值分别为4.465及8.540。2）到2013年为止，我国已经有10个省份进入高市场化行列，19个省份为中等市场化省份，但是仍然有西藏、青海2个省份没有迈过低市场化门槛。3）财政支农支出的粮食产出效应存在显著的区域差异。在高市场化省份，财政支农支出对粮食产出的影响系数为0.393，具有显著的促进作用；在中等市场化省份，财政支农支出能够促进粮食产出，其影响系数为0.031，但是促进作用不显著；而在低市场化省份，财政支农支出对粮食产出的影响系数是-0.087，其效应显著为负。认为应该在市场化水平比较低的省份加快其市场化进程，进行制度创新，以更有效地实现财政支农促进粮食安全的政策目标。 |
| 关键词: 财政支农 粮食产出 市场化 门槛模型 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2017.03.21 |
| 投稿时间：2016-02-24 |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目（15BJY094）；高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金课题（20134320110007）；湖南省哲学社科基金项目（15YBB025）；湖南省教育科学规划重点课题（XJK014AGD006）；湖南省重点学科建设项目（湖南教发[2011]76号） |
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| Marketization, financial expenditure for agriculture and food output: An empirical analysis based on threshold model |
|
YAO Xubing1,2, LUO Guangqiang1, WU Zhenshun2
|
| (1.School of Economics, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128, China;2.School of Management, Hunan Institute of Engineering, Xiangtan 411104, China) |
| Abstract: |
| To further explore the influence of fiscal expenditure for agriculture on food output,based on the threshold-effect model,the panel data of China's 31 provinces from 2000 to 2013 was employed to analyze the regional differences in food output effect by China's agriculture fiscal expenditure.The results showed that:1) The effect of fiscal expenditure on food output was severely restricted by the level of marketization and displayed significant nonlinear.Two threshold values of dual threshold effect were 4.465 and 8.540 respectively.2) By the end of 2013,ten provinces entered the ranks of high marketization,and 19 provinces entered the ranks of medium marketization.However,Tibet and Qinghai still didn't cross the threshold of the low market.3) There were significant regional differences in food output effects of fiscal expenditure.In provinces of high marketization,the influence coefficient of fiscal expenditure for agriculture on food output was 0.393;In provinces of medium marketization,fiscal expenditure on agriculture could promote food output and the influence coefficient was 0.031 but not significant;In provinces of low marketization,the influence coefficient of fiscal expenditure for agriculture on food output was -0.087 and the effect was negative significantly.In conclusion,the process of market should be speeded up and institutional innovation should be carried out to achieve policy objectives to promote food security for financial support for agriculture more effectively,especially in provinces of low marketization. |
| Key words: fiscal expenditure for agriculture food output marketization threshold model |
