| 摘要: |
| 为优化有限农业水资源量下的种植结构以实现最大经济效益，考虑种植结构优化过程中存在的水文要素与社会经济要素中存在的不确定性，构建以经济效益最大为目标的双区间两阶段随机规划模型。在农业水资源量测算时出现了双区间特点，故使用双区间理论对农业水资源量进行表征计算。将构建的模型用于黑河中游甘肃省张掖市甘州区、临泽县、高台县的5种水文年（枯水年、较枯水年、平水年、较丰水年以及丰水年）下的种植结构优化，比较了优化结果与现状水平年种植结构与经济收益。结果表明：通过双区间两阶段随机规划模型得到的3种种植结构优化方案即保守决策方案、趋于平均决策方案和乐观决策方案产生的经济效益比现状水平年种植结构下的经济效益分别提高[1.97，8.53]、[4.20，11.04]、[6.43，13.56]亿元。 |
| 关键词: 种植结构优化 双区间理论 两阶段随机规划 不确定性 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2016.11.15 |
| 投稿时间：2016-02-25 |
| 基金项目:国家高技术研究发展计划（2013AA102904-1）；国家自然基金重点项目（51439006）；水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目（201501017） |
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| Planting structure optimization of main crops in the middle reaches of Heihe River basin on dual interval two stage stochastic programming |
|
ZHANG Fan, GUO Ping, LI Mo
|
| (College of Water Resources & Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to achieve maximum economic benefits under the limited agricultural water resources,a dual interval two stage stochastic programming model to maximum economic benefit is constructed by considering the uncertainties in the hydrological factors and the social economy in the planting structure optimization.The dual interval theory is used to calculate the water resources due to its dual interval uncertain characteristics.This model is applied to the middle reaches of Heihe River basin including three counties,Ganzhou,Linze and Gaotai in Gansu Province under five hydrological years (low flow years,partial low flow years,normal flow years,partial high flow years and special high flow years).By comparing the model results with the status quo,it is found that the economic benefits of three kinds of planting structure optimization schemes given by the dual interval two stage stochastic programming model are increased[1.97,8.53],[4.20,11.04] and[6.43,13.56] billion yuan respectively. |
| Key words: planting structure optimization dual interval theory two stage stochastic programming uncertainty |
