| 摘要: |
| 为了解中国及世界牛肉生产与贸易状况，利用生产成本、出口价格以及相关国际竞争力指数对中国牛肉产品的国际竞争力进行了指标评价，并运用引力模型对中国（未含港澳台地区，全文同）牛肉产品出口的影响因素展开实证分析。结果显示：中国是牛肉生产大国但却是出口小国，贸易逆差逐年拉大；牛肉产品国际竞争力整体水平不高，且国内市场处于供求紧平衡；出口对象国（地区）GDP、是否为内陆国与中新自由贸易协定（FTA）的正式生效是影响中国牛肉产品出口的主要因素，未来需重点关注自由贸易发展对中国肉牛产业的影响，结合分析结论提出了相应对策建议。 |
| 关键词: 牛肉 国际竞争力 出口 影响因素 引力模型 Heckman两阶段模型 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2016.09.19 |
| 投稿时间：2015-10-19 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（71573257）；农业部、财政部“现代农业产业技术体系：肉羊项目”（CARS-39）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（2016RW001） |
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| Empirical analysis on international competitiveness and export influencing factors of Chinese beef: Based on the background of trade liberalization |
|
WANG Shi-quan, CHANG Qian, LI Bing-long, WANG Yu
|
| (College of Economics & Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Based on the characteristics of the production and trade of beef,the international competitiveness of Chinese beef products from the costs,prices and international competitiveness indexes are analyzed.The influencing factors of the international competitiveness of Chinese beef products(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan) are investigated by using gravity model.The production of beef is really big and trade is small;The trade gap is widened year by year;Chinese beef products do not have international competitiveness and domestic market is in tight balance between supply and demand,and GDP of export objects,whether landlocked countries and the establishment of CNFTA are the main factors influencing the export of Chinese beef products;the impact of free trade on cattle industry in China must be focused in the future;then there are several analysis corresponding conclusions and countermeasures. |
| Key words: beef international competitiveness export influencing factors gravity model Heckman two-stage model |
