| 摘要: |
| 基于2001年1月-2013年12月的月度数据,利用VEC模型和OLS模型,分析了国际原油价格和玉米质燃料乙醇价格对我国玉米价格波动的影响。实证结果表明,国际能源市场与我国玉米市场存在高度的整合关系;国际原油价格每上升1个百分点,国内玉米价格将上升0.433 2个百分点,但玉米质燃料乙醇价格波动对我国玉米价格波动的影响并不显著。同时,敏感性检验结果验证了VEC和OLS回归结果的稳健性。 |
| 关键词: 能源价格 玉米价格 整合关系 敏感性检验 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2016.06.018 |
| 投稿时间：2015-06-04 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(70973098);陕西师范大学中央高校基本科研业务经费专项资金项目(15SZYB18);陕西省软科学项目(2015KRM064) |
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| Impact of international energy prices on China's corn prices |
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WU Hai-xia1, GE Yan2, HUO Xue-xi3, LI Peng1
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| (1.International Business School, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, China;2.School of Public Finance, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081, China;3.Center of Western Rural Development, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Based on monthly data obtained from January 2001 to December 2013 monthly data, the impact of international crude oil and corn-based fuel ethanol prices volatilities on the China's corn prices were analyzed by employing the VEC model and OLS model.The empirical results showed that there was significant integration relationship between international energy market and China's corn market.When International crude oil prices rose by 1%, domestic corn prices increased by 0.4332%.However, the impact of corn-based fuel ethanol prices volatilities on China's corn prices was insignificant.Meanwhile, the results from sensitivity test also proved the robustness of the VEC and OLS regression results. |
| Key words: energy prices corn prices integration relationship sensitivity test |
