| 摘要: |
| 为了解极端气候事件对农业生产的影响,对2000-2013年安徽省粮食作物单产及影响因子进行分析;利用拉格朗日插值方法估算气象灾害损失量;利用信息扩散理论评估了安徽省各地市粮食作物气象灾损风险。结果显示:1)气象灾害是安徽省粮食减产的主要因素,2003、2007、2012和2013年粮食作物气象灾损较为严重,年损失总量均在400万t以上;2)安徽省粮食作物气象灾害风险等级以低风险和小风险为主。低风险区主要位于安徽省中南部,小风险区域遍及中北部地区。 |
| 关键词: 粮食作物 影响因子 粮食气象灾损 风险评估 安徽省 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2016.05.015 |
| 投稿时间：2015-07-20 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(41372177) |
|
| Influential elements of per unit area grain yield and the meteorological disaster risk assessment in Anhui Province |
|
WU Yan-fei1, XU Yu1,2, XU Gang1
|
| (1.School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China;2.School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to comprehend the influence of extreme climate events on agriculture, the per unit area grain yield and its influential elements in all provincial cities in Anhui province from 2000 to 2013 were analyzed;And the meteorological disaster loss of grain yield in Anhui Province was been calculated by using Lagrange interpolation method;Eventually, the risk of meteorological disasters of grain yield in all provincial cities in Anhui Province was assessed based on the methods of information diffusion theory.The results indicated that:1) The main reason that caused the loss of grain yield is meteorological disasters, and the losses of the meteorological disasters were serious in the year of 2003, 2007, 2012, and 2013, and total annual loss was over 4 million tons;2) The risk of meteorological disaster in Anhui province was mainly at low and small levels.The low risk areas were mostly distributed in the mid-south of Anhui Province, while the small risk areas were located all over the mid-north. |
| Key words: grain crops influential elements meteorological grain loss risk assessment Anhui Province |
