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| 刺萼龙葵对中国玉米产业造成的潜在经济损失评估 |
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吴志刚1, 方焱2, 秦萌3, 秦誉嘉4, 王聪4, 赵谈4, 李志红4
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| (1.西藏大学 农牧学院, 西藏 林芝 860000;2.天津出入境检验检疫局, 天津 300461;3.全国农业技术推广服务中心, 北京 100125;4.中国农业大学 农学与生物技术学院, 北京 100193) |
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| 摘要: |
| 为了更加全面地预见和了解刺萼龙葵的入侵危害,本研究在收集、分析国内外相关资料的基础上,采用@RISK软件和蒙特卡洛随机模拟方法,建立了刺萼龙葵对我国玉米产业造成的潜在经济损失评估模型,从直接经济损失和防治费用2个方面进行了评估。评估结果显示,刺萼龙葵可能对我国玉米产业造成的潜在经济损失总值在29.37~350.83亿元,损失率在0.83%~8.92%。 |
| 关键词: 刺萼龙葵 玉米 @RISK 经济损失 有害生物风险分析 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2015.06.18 |
| 投稿时间：2015-06-08 |
| 基金项目:农业部外来入侵生物防治项目(U071,U337) |
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| Potential economic loss assessment on maize industry of China caused by buffalobur (Solanum rostratum) |
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WU Zhi-gang1, FANG Yan2, QIN Meng3, QIN Yu-jia4, WANG Cong4, ZHAO Tan4, LI Zhi-hong4
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| (1.Agricultural and Animal Husbandry College, Tibet University, Linzhi 860000;2.Tianjin Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau, Tianjin 300461, China;3.National Agro-technical Extension and Service Center, Beijing 100125, China;4.College of Agriculture and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to foresee and realize the risk of invasion of Solanum rostratum, We collected the relevant data published at national and international journals and by combining the @RISK software and the Monte Carlo stochastic simulation method,we built potential economic loss assessment model of the maize industry of China caused by buffalobur (S.rostratum) on direct economic losses and the cost of prevention and control.The results showed that the total economic loss was estimated to be 2.937-35.083×108 yuan,and the loss rat was estimated to be 0.83%-8.92%. |
| Key words: Solanum rostratum maize @RISK economic losses pest risk analysis (PRA) |
