| 摘要: |
| 以中国的渤海湾和黄土高原等两大苹果主产区为例,运用超越对数随机前沿生产函数模型,分析了1992—2012年以气温、降水量和日照时数等指标衡量的气候变化对苹果单产及单产增长的贡献。结果表明:气温升高、降水量减少和日照时数减少均有利于苹果单产增加,气温每升高1 ℃,单产将增加2.38%~2.89%;降水量每减少10 mm,单产将增加2.07%~5.43%;日照时数每减少10 h,单产将增加1.01%~1.33%;气候因素主要通过与地区的交互作用影响苹果单产,降水量和日照时数对两地区苹果单产影响为负,气温对单产的影响为正,且气候因素对黄土高原区比对环渤海地区的影响力度更强。不同因素对苹果单产增长的贡献具有差异,气候因子贡献率为-12.79%,主要投入要素贡献率为21%,TFP增长的贡献达到32.98%。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化 随机前沿生产函数 全要素生产率 苹果 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2015.04.11 |
| 投稿时间：2014-10-08 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(71303188);教育部人文社科基金项目(11YJC630003);西北农林科技大学基本科研业务费(QN2012050) |
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| Impact and contribution of climate change on apple productivity in China |
|
BAI Xiu-guang, CHEN Xiao-nan, ZHENG Shao-feng
|
| (College of Economics and Management, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, China) |
| Abstract: |
| The impact of climate change on crop productivity is a hot research topic in agricultural production, and indirect crop simulation models have been evaluated by many researchers.During the years of 1992 to 2012, the apple yield in 8 main producing provinces of China was significantly influenced by the climate change factor, which was indicated by temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours.In this paper, the impacts and contribution of climate change on apple productivity were explored by using stochastic frontier trans-log function with a panel data set from the 8 provinces.The empirical results showed that the apple yield potential increases about 2.38%-2.89% induced by raising per 1 ℃ in temperature factor, decreases about 2.07%-5.43% induced by raising per 10 mm in precipitation factor, and decreases about 1.01%-1.33% induced by raising per 10h in sunshine hours factor;secondly, the climate factors affect apple yields through interaction with area, the precipitation and sunshine hours have negative effects on the yield, and the temperature has positive effects on the yield;thirdly, the major contributor to the apple yield growth is TFP growth which accounts for 32.98% of apple production growth in the period of 1992—2012, the average contribution sourced from the input growth is 21%, whereas the climate has a negative contribution at the level of -13.6%. |
| Key words: climate change stochastic frontier function TFP apple |
