| 摘要: |
| 为了解干旱对冬小麦生长发育及产量形成产生的重要的影响,基于作物水分亏缺指数(CWDIa)、累积湿润度指数(Ma)、综合气象干旱指数(CI)以及降水距平百分率(Pa)开展对比分析及在安徽省冬麦区适应性研究,最终选取CWDIa作为干旱致灾危险性最优指标。根据冬小麦期望减产率划分干旱危险性强度等级,计算超越致灾临界值频次,结合承灾体脆弱度及暴露度构建风险评估模型,开展冬小麦干旱风险评估研究。结果表明:受地理位置、承灾体脆弱性等因素影响,不同干旱风险等级频率空间差异明显,总体上冬麦区中北部干旱高风险频率较高,而南部高风险频率较低。1999/2000年典型年干旱风险也呈北高南低分布,减产率分布与干旱风险基本一致。由此可见,所构建的干旱风险指标及评估模型适用于安徽省冬小麦干旱风险评估,研究结果对于提升区域灾害风险管理和决策水平提供参考,以减轻干旱灾害造成的损失。 |
| 关键词: 干旱指标 风险评估 冬小麦 安徽冬麦区 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2015.01.027 |
| 投稿时间：2014-04-28 |
| 基金项目:2013年中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201301) |
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| Research of drought disaster risk assessment for winter wheat in Anhui Province based on a crop loss model |
|
WANG Sheng, TIAN Hong, YANG Wei, DAI Juan, WU Rong
|
| (Anhui Climate Center, Hefei 230031, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Drought is the main agro-meteorological disaster during winter wheat growth periods,which seriously influences the growth and yield of winter wheat.Taking winter wheat growing areas in Anhui Province as an example,and based on the crop water deficit index,the accumulated humidity index,the comprehensive meteorological drought index,and the precipitation anomaly percentage index,it was found that there were relationships between different risk assessment indices which were correlated with the relative meteorological yield.In this paper,an integrated drought risk index was constructed by comparing the computed drought indices with some recorded drought situation,evaluating the drought adaptability,and selecting the optimal drought index as a hazard risk index.The drought risk index was graded by using the winter wheat yield reduction rate,and then the frequencies beyond the different drought disaster thresholds were calculated.A regional drought risk evaluation model was created based on the drought hazard during the whole growing period,combined with the vulnerability and exposure of hazard affected bodies.The results showed that there was an obvious difference between the north and south of drought risk,which was affected by the latitude,altitude,and hazard-bearing bodies.The frequency of drought in central and northern parts was higher than that in the southern part of winter wheat region of Anhui Province.1999/2000 typical drought year was used to verify and test the applicability of the model,risk distribution increased from south to north,at the same time,the spatial distribution of ratio of potential yield reduction was more consistent with the drought risk.The evaluation results showed that the constructed integrated drought risk index in this paper is applicable for winter wheat drought risk assessment.Drought risk assessment is helpful for improving the ability of regional disaster management and mitigating the drought-induced loss. |
| Key words: drought index risk assessment winter wheat winter wheat region of Anhui Province |
