| 摘要: |
| 为判断我国油菜籽及菜子油进口来源的可靠性，降低进口风险，考察我国对主要来源国的进口依赖关系。在分析我国油菜籽和菜子油进口市场结构的基础上，综合考察我国油菜籽及菜子油从各主要来源国的进口占总进口值的份额（I1）、进口来源国对我国出口占该国总出口值的份额（I2），各主要出口国的油菜籽及菜子油出口值占世界的份额（P值）以及我国与各国总体贸易平衡状况（B指数），测算我国对主要进口来源市场的进口依赖系数（I3及I5），并评价进口安全性。结果表明我国油菜籽和菜子油进口主要依赖加拿大市场，但对加拿大的油菜籽进口依赖系数I3和I5分别从2005年的12.781 8和4.322 4下降到2012年的2.662 5和1.032 7，菜子油I3和I5分别从2005年的5.079 8和0.906 2下降到2012年的2.232 7和0.856 1。得出加拿大是我国油菜籽和菜子油进口的安全来源，进口油菜籽比菜子油更加经济合理的结论，并提出相关对策建议。 |
| 关键词: 油菜籽 菜子油 进口安全 市场集中度 市场依赖 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2014.04.36 |
| 投稿时间：2013-11-11 |
| 基金项目:国家现代农业产业技术体系建设项目（nycytx-00521） |
|
| Import dependency and import security of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in China |
|
ZHU Zai-qing1,2, YUAN Sheng-hong1, TU Tao-tao1,2
|
| (1.College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China;2.Hubei Rural Revelopment Research Center, Wuhan 430070, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to identify the source reliability and lower the risks of China's importing rapeseed and rapeseed oil,the relationship between China and the source countries of China's rapeseed and rapeseed oil import market was studied.Based on analysis of China's rapeseed and rapeseed oil import market structure,the study focused on the following aspects :identifying the proportion of the value share of China's rapeseed and rapeseed oil imported from each source country to the total import value from all the world(I1),the proportion of the value share of rapeseed and rapeseed oil exported from each source country to China to the total export value to the world(I2),and the total trade balance (Index B) between China and each country was also taken into account.The dependency coefficients(I3、I5)of China's import and import safety were estimated in this paper.Research results indicated that China's import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil mainly depended on Canada,but the dependency coefficient went down gradually by showing that the rapeseed indexes I3 and I5 dropped from 12.781 8 and 4.322 4 in 2005 to 2.662 5 and 1.032 7 in 2012 respectively,and the rapeseed oil indexes I3 and I5 dropped from 5.079 8 and 0.906 2 to 2.232 7 and 0.856 1 respectively.Research results indicated that Canada is the safe source of China's rapeseed and rapeseed oil import and it is economic rationality to import more rapeseed rather than rapeseed oil.Some countermeasures and advice have been given by the authors in the end. |
| Key words: rapeseed rapeseed oil import security import market concentration import market dependence |
