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| 甘肃省城镇工矿用地变化与经济发展关系的计量研究 |
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谢保鹏1,2,3, 朱道林1,2, 陈英3, 徐思超1,2, 白志远3
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| (1.中国农业大学 资源与环境学院, 北京 100193;2.国土资源部 农用地质量与监控重点实验室, 北京 100193;3.甘肃农业大学 资源与环境学院, 兰州 730070) |
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| 摘要: |
| 为揭示甘肃省城镇工矿用地规模变化与经济发展的关系，借助计量经济分析方法对2001—2011年的相关数据进行了检验和分析。研究结果表明：1）二者不存在长期均衡的关系，但不可否认，2001—2011年二者的相关性较强；2）滞后1、2期时，城镇工矿用地变化是经济增长的Granger因，滞后2期时，经济增长是城镇工矿用地变化的Granger因；二三产业发展不是城镇工矿用地变化的Granger因，城镇工矿用地变化是二三产业发展的Granger因；城市化进程和城镇工矿用地变化没有明显的Granger因果关系；3）城镇工矿用地对经济增长的贡献较小，其解释力度不到1%，而经济增长对城镇工矿用地变化的影响一直呈现较高水平，解释力度均高于90%，但总体趋势逐渐减弱；二三产业发展对城镇工矿用地变化的影响逐渐加强，同时城镇工矿用地对二三产业的发展具有很强的贡献作用；城市化发展对城镇工矿用地变化的贡献作用并不明显。而城镇工矿用地变化对城市化发展的冲击相对较大且有微弱的增大趋势。 |
| 关键词: 城镇工矿用地 经济发展 动态效应 甘肃省 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2014.03.29 |
| 投稿时间：2013-12-15 |
| 基金项目:国土资源部公益项目（201411010） |
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| Dynamic effect of urban-industrial land and economic development in Gansu Province |
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XIE Bao-peng1,2,3, ZHU Dao-lin1,2, CHEN Ying3, XU Si-chao1,2, BAI Zhi-yuan3
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| (1.College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;2.Key Laboratory of Agricultural Land Qualify, Monitoring and Control, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100193, China;3.College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Urban-industrial land is an important carrier of economic development.In order to reveal the relationship between the land and economy, the econometric analysis method was used to check and analyse the relationship from 2001 to 2011 in Gansu Province.The results showed that there was not any long-run equilibrium relationship between the two objects.But it was undeniable that they had a strong correlation from 2001 to 2011. The change of urban-industrial land was the Granger causality of economic growth at the first delaying period.There was a two-way causality the change of urban-industrial land and the economic growth at the second delaying period.The secondary and tertiary industry development was not the Granger causality of the urban-industrial land change.The urban-industrial land change was the Granger causality of the secondary and tertiary industry development.But urbanization and urban-industrial land change was not a significant Granger causality. Urban-industrial land contributed little, less than 1%, to the economic growth.In contrast, the economic growth greatly influenced the change of urban industrial land scale.accounting for more than 90%, which overall showing gradual decrease trend.The development of secondary and tertiary industries increasingly and strongly influenced urban-industrial land.Vice versa, urban-industrial land stimulated secondary and tertiary industries.Urbanization's contribution had obvious influence in the use change of urban-industrial land.The use change of urban- industrial land largely and increasingly influenced urbanization. |
| Key words: urban industrial land economic development dynamic effects Gansu Province |
