| 摘要: |
| 根据宁夏中部干旱带盐池县、同心县和海原县气象站1961—2011年平均气温和降水量资料，分析该区域气候变化特征和规律，应用Miami和Thornthwaite Memorial模型探讨该区域春玉米生产潜力及其变化特征，并深入研究气候变化对春玉米气候生产潜力的影响。结果表明：1） 研究区气候呈气温明显升高、降水波动减少的“暖干型”趋势变化。2） 春玉米温度生产潜力呈逐年增加，降水和气候生产潜力呈波动中减少的趋势。3） 研究区春玉米气候生产潜力平均值为5 037 kg/（hm2·年），气候生产潜力与年平均降水量有着极其显著的线性相关，与年平均气温没有明显的线性相关，表明降水条件是制约研究区春玉米气候生产潜力的关键因子。未来气候变化显著影响着春玉米气候生产潜力，其中降水量变化对春玉米气候生产潜力的影响远大于气温变化的影响，降水的多少及变率对其限制作用将更明显。因此，应大力发展农业技术，合理安排农作物布局来适应气候变化，以保证春玉米产量和品质。 |
| 关键词: 春玉米 气候变化 作物生产潜力 宁夏中部干旱带 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2014.03.15 |
| 投稿时间：2013-11-22 |
| 基金项目:宁夏自然科学基金资助项目（NZ1128）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（41261068） |
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| Effects of climate changes on spring maize’s climate potential productivity in middle arid region of Ningxia |
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LAI Rong-sheng1, YU Hai-long1, HUANG Ju-ying2
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| (1.College of Resources and Environment, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China;2.Center of New Technology Application and Research, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Based on the climate data of annual average temperature and precipitation during 1961 to 2011 in the middle arid region of Ningxia such as Yanchi, Tongxin and Haiyuan county, characteristics and rules of climate changes were analysed in the research area.And the spring maize's potential productivity and its changes were calculated with Miami and Thornthwaite Memorial Model.The influence of climate change on climate potential productivity was evaluated in this paper.The results indicated that research area was of warm-dry weather, and with increase in average temperature, but low fluctuation in precipitation decreased.The temperature potential productivity of spring maize annually increased while precipitation and climate potential productivity decreased with fluctuation.The average climate potential productivity value was 5 037 kg/(hm2·a) in the research area, and significantly and linearly related to annual average precipitation, but not to annual average temperature.The precipitation might be therefore the key factor which restrict the spring maize's climate potential productivity in this region.Our results may imply that climatic change would play a remarkable role in spring maize climatic potential productivity.The precipitation change may have stronger impact on spring maize climate potential productivity than temperature.Precipitation and its change will become more and more influence in spring maize's climate potential productivity.Therefore, it is essential to develop new agricultural technology and suitable arrangement of crops for adapting climate change, so as to guarantee yield and quality of spring maize. |
| Key words: spring maize climate change crop potential productivity middle arid region of ningxia |
