| 摘要: |
| 利用1961—2011年江西省81个常规气象观测站资料，双季稻产量资料和全球气候模式ECHAM5/MPI-OM在SRES A1B排放情景下2015—2100年逐日气温和降水资料，定量研究了气候变化对江西省双季稻生产的影响，结果表明：1）双季稻生长期光、温和水基本能满足水稻生长的需求，21世纪以来，生育期≥ 10 ℃积温以正距平为主，晚稻生长期日照时数自20世纪90年代以来呈明显下降趋势；2）分析极端气候事件对水稻生产的影响发现，随着气候变暖，高温逼熟的次数呈明显上升状态，寒露风出现的几率越来越小；3）建立了气候产量预测模式，并利用气候模式的预测结果模拟2015—2100年的气候产量，发现2060年以前，早稻气候产量基本以正值为主，2060年后气候产量呈正负波动状态，晚稻气候产量整体变化幅度较早稻气候产量小。 |
| 关键词: 双季稻 气候变化 产量 影响 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2014.02.31 |
| 投稿时间：2013-08-02 |
| 基金项目:公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201106003）；江西省科技厅项目（20111BBG70031-1） |
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| Influence of climate change on double-harvest rice yield in Jiangxi Province |
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WU Shan-shan, WANG Huai-qing, HUANG Cai-ting
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| (Jiangxi Climate Center, Nanchang 330046, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Climate change affected regional crop production.Jiangxi province was one of the most important rice-producing provinces in China.The rice production in Jiangxi played an important role in local and national food security.Using the data from 81 meteorological stations,double-harvest rice yield data of Jiangxi from 1961 to 2011,daily temperature and precipitation data from global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM,the link was investigated between the climate change and double-rice yield in Jiangxi.The results showed thatsunshine,temperature and precipitation basically met the requirement for rice growth.The accumulated temperature of ≥ 10 ℃ was mainly at positive anomaly since the 21th century.Sunshine hours at late period of rice growth tended to decrease since the 1990s.The occurrences of the forced ripeningby high temperature significantly increased,while the cold dew wind significantly decreased since the 21th century.The climate-yield model was established for predicting rice production from 2015 to 2100.It was found that the early rice meteorology yield was mainly positive value before 2060,but waving after that year.The change degree at late rice yield was smaller than that of the early rice. |
| Key words: double-harvest rice climate change Guangxi model |
