| 摘要: |
| 采用水资源承载力平衡指数法,分析广西西江流域未来10年不同情景条件下的水资源承载力状况。在假设西江流域水资源开发利用率达到40%的条件下的计算结果表明,在最小用水量情景下,除南宁市水资源短缺外,其他地区水资源均可承载其社会经济发展水平;在最大用水量情景下,贵港市也会出现水资源短缺状况,但西江流域整体水资源盈余,西江流域水资源基本能够承载其社会经济、人口发展规模。因此,广西西江流域未来水资源承载力保障的前提是提高该流域的水资源开发利用率。 |
| 关键词: 西江流域 水资源承载力 指数平衡法 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2013.05.09 |
| 投稿时间：2013-03-07 |
| 基金项目:国家环境保护部《生物多样性公约》项目(1441100036); 环保公益性行业科研专项(201209031) |
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| Water resource carrying capacity based on the index balance method in the Xijiang River Basin,Guangxi |
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SUN Guang, LUO Zun-lan, XU Jing, LI Jun-sheng, LÜ Feng-chun
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| (State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, CRAES, Beijing 100012, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Water resource carrying capacity balance index was used to analyze the water resource carrying capacity under different scenarios of Xijiang River Basin,Guangxi in next 10 years.The results showed that the water resource could support the social & economic development of the most administrative units except Nanning in the basin under minimum water utilization scenario,assuming the water resources development and utilization rate reached to 40%.A water resource shortage was likely to occur in Guigang while using maximum water utilization scenario,but water resource in whole basin still had a favorable balance,indicating the water resource might support the social & economic development in Xijiang River Basin on the whole.It is evident that the improvement in the water resource development and utilization efficiency is the safeguard to guarantee the water recourse carrying capacity in Xijiang River Basin in the future. |
| Key words: Xijiang River Basin water resource carrying capacity index balance method |
