| 摘要: |
| 为解决加工番茄病虫害预测与防控问题,采用Elman神经网络对番茄病虫害预测预报进行研究。根据新疆某加工番茄产区2003—2010年的4—10月的病虫害发生程度及同期气象资料,建立了加工番茄病虫害发生与气象因子关系的Elman神经网络预测模型。以预测2011年番茄病虫情为例,结果表明此预测模型具有良好的预测效果。该研究为进一步构建加工番茄病虫害管理决策支持系统奠定了理论基础。 |
| 关键词: 番茄 病虫害 Elman神经网络 预测 决策支持系统 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2013.04.14 |
| 投稿时间：2013-01-22 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(61064005) |
|
| Methods for long-term pest prediction of processing-tomato |
|
HAN Ze-qun, JIANG Bo
|
| (School of Electrician Engineering, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830047, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to predicti and control the pests of processing-tomato,the Elman neural network was used in this research.The prediction model was established with meteorological data and pests and diseases during April and October from 2003 to 2010 in the Yan Qi Basin region.The results showed that this prediction model was suitable.The predicted results in 2011,for example,were comparable with the measured values.It could provide a theoretical basis for building pest management decision support system of the processing-tomato. |
| Key words: tomato pests Elman neural network forecasting decision support system |
