| 摘要: |
| 利用安徽省1978-2010年农作物播种面积、受灾类型及其受灾面积资料,分析农业气象灾害时空分布特征;采用灰色关联度及农业气象综合灾损模型,开展农业气象灾害年景评估。结果表明:安徽省气象灾害造成的农作物受灾面积年际波动大;农业气象灾害空间分布特点为淮北地区最重,江淮之间南部和沿江地区次之,大别山区、皖南山区以及部分城市周边相对较轻。各类气象灾害对农业受灾的影响大小依次为:暴雨洪涝>旱灾>风雹灾>低温雨雪冰冻灾,其中暴雨洪涝和旱灾影响大,受灾程度重;安徽省农业气象灾害较轻年景出现频率为55%,其中灾害最轻年份为1981年,而较重年景占12%,灾害最重的年份为1991年。上述年景评估结果与安徽省农业受灾历史记录较吻合。 |
| 关键词: 农业气象灾害 灰色关联分析 灾损指标 年景评估 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2013.03.028 |
| 投稿时间：2012-04-23 |
| 基金项目:安徽省气象局气象科技发展基金项目(KM201207); 安徽省气象局新技术集成项目(AHXJ201203) |
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| Annual case assessment of main agro-meteorological disasters in Anhui Province during the past 33 years |
|
WANG Sheng1, SHEN Mei1, SHI Lei2
|
| (1.Anhui Climate Center, Hefei 230031, China;2.Anhui Meteorological Bureau, Hefei 230061, China) |
| Abstract: |
| The temporal-spatial distribution of the agro-meteorological disasters were analyzed based on the statistic data of the sowing hectares,disaster types and the disaster-affected agricultural area in Anhui province from 1978 to 2010.Annual case assessments of main agro-meteorological disasters were worked out according to the grey correlation analysis and integrated disaster loss assessment model.The results showed that there was a notable inter-annual fluctuation of the agro-meteorological disasters damage area.The spatial distribution of agro-meteorological disaster was inhomogeneous with its most serious influence on agriculture in Huaibei and southern basin of Yangtze-Huaihe River and the area along the Yangtze River,and slight influence in Dabie Mountain,southern mountainous area of Anhui province and some suburban.The weight coefficient of four types of disasters were in the order of flood,drought,wind-hailstone damage,freezing rain/heavy snow through grey correlation analysis.Both flood and drought were the most serious agro-meteorological disasters.The appearance frequency was 55% for the better annual assessment of agro-meteorological disaster.The lightest disaster occurred in 1981.The appearance frequency was 12% for the poor annual assessment.The most serious one happened in 1991.The results of the analysis almost was accorded with actual agro-meteorological disasters. |
| Key words: agro-meteorological disasters grey relation analysis loss assessment indicator annual case assessment |
