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| 基于链合模型的中国禽蛋供应链价格传导机制研究 |
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李哲敏1,2, 许世卫1,2, 崔利国1, 董晓霞1,2, 孔繁涛1,2, 李干琼1,2
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| (1.中国农业科学院 农业信息研究所, 北京 100081;2.农业部 智能化农业预警技术重点开放实验室, 北京 100081) |
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| 摘要: |
| 以我国禽蛋供应链价格系统为研究对象,采用2000-01—2012-02的蛋鸡配合饲料价格、商品代蛋雏鸡价格、鸡蛋批发价格和鸡蛋零售价格月度数据应用链合模型研究整个系统内部的价格传导机制。结果表明:我国禽蛋供应链价格系统内部存在显著的长期协整关系;系统内部各个价格序列的调整系数均小于0.2,调整速度缓慢;蛋鸡配合饲料价格和鸡蛋批发价格分别是下游鸡蛋零售价格的Granger原因,而是鸡蛋零售价格仅是上游商品代蛋雏鸡价格的Granger原因;蛋鸡配合饲料价格对鸡蛋零售价格的动态影响最大,在整个禽蛋供应链中占有重要地位。政府部门应加大对整个供应链价格的监测和预警,特别是对上游蛋鸡配合饲料价格的干预和适时调控。 |
| 关键词: 禽蛋 供应链 价格传导 价格传导机制 链合模型 集成模型 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2012.05.028 |
| 投稿时间：2012-03-27 |
| 基金项目:"十二五"国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2012BAH20B04);基本科研业务费专项(2012ZL017);农业部农业信息预警专项;农业部"948"项目(2012-Z1) |
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| Price transmission in the eggs supply chain with application MCM |
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LI Zhe-min1,2, XU Shi-wei1,2, CUI Li-guo1, DONG Xiao-xia1,2, KONG Fan-tao1,2, LI Gan-qiong1,2
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| (1.Agricultural Information Institute, the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;2.Key Laboratory of Agri-information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081, China) |
| Abstract: |
| The price transmission mechanism of the eggs supply chain in China was studied by designing a Market-chain Cooperated Model (MCM).Monthly price dates over the period from June 2000 to February 2012 were covered in this work which including legehenne compound feed,goods generation of chicks,Eggs wholesale price and retail price.The empirical results show the existence of a long-term cointegration relationship in the price system of eggs supply chain.The adjustment factor of each price in the system was less than 0.2,which meant that the price adjustment speed was very slow.Legehenne compound feed and eggs wholesale price both were the Granger causes of eggs retail price,but the eggs retail price was the only Granger cause of goods generation of chicks.Finally,we founded that the price of legehenne compound feed had the largest dynamic impact on eggs retail price and played an important role in the whole eggs supply chain.All of the findings implied that the government needed to increase the monitoring and warning for the prices in the supply chain,especially paid more attention to timely intervening and the control on the feed price. |
| Key words: eggs supply chain price transmission price transmission mechanism MCM combined model |
