| 摘要: |
| 为有效识别作物模型关键参数,减少模型模拟的不适用性,根据中国农业大学上庄实验站小麦田间实测数据,应用EFAST方法对CERES-Wheat模型输入参数进行定量的全局敏感性分析,分析小麦模拟产量对作物参数、土壤参数和田间管理参数变化的敏感性。结果表明:CERES-Wheat模型的作物品种型参数中,标准籽粒质量参数对模拟结果影响最大,而生态型参数中影响最大的是营养生长末期叶片面积质量比率;土壤参数中的矿化系数对模拟结果影响最显著;管理参数中的施氮量、播种日期、施肥日期、播种深度对模拟结果影响较显著。基于EFAST方法的敏感性分析对作物模型修正具有指导意义,可为确定模型关键参数及模型进一步优化提供参考依据。 |
| 关键词: CERES-Wheat模型 EFAST方法 敏感性分析 关键参数 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2012.05.024 |
| 投稿时间：2012-03-31 |
| 基金项目:国土资源部公益性行业科研专项(201011006-04) |
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| Sensitivity analysis of CERES-Wheat model parameters based on EFAST method |
|
ZHANG Jing-xiao1, SU Wei2
|
| (1.College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China;2.College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to effectively identify the key parameters of crop models and reduce the inapplicability of model simulation,the Extend Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST) was used to analyze the global sensitivity of CERES-Wheat model parameters in Shangzhuang experimental station of China Agricultural University in Beijing.The sensitivity of crop,soil and field management parameters was analyzed.The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that standard kernel size under optimum conditions had the greatest impact on the simulation wheat yields among crop cultivar parameters while lamina area to weight ratio of phase 2 was the most significant one in crop ecotype parameters.For soil parameters,nitrogen mineralized factor was the most critical input.The amount of nitrogenous fertilizer,planting date,fertilization date and planting depth among all of field management parameters had the most significant influence on the simulation results.The research showed that the global sensitivity analysis based on EFAST had guiding significance for crop model correction and provided reference for parameter selection and crop model optimization. |
| Key words: CERES-wheat model EFAST method sensitivity analysis key parameters |
