| 摘要: |
| 综合运用CLIMEX 3.0与ArcGIS 9.3 对苜蓿叶象甲(Hypera postica Gyllenhal)在我国目前以及未来气候条件下的潜在地理分布进行了研究。结果显示:目前气候条件下,苜蓿叶象甲在我国的适生区主要分布新疆、甘肃、内蒙古、西藏东南部、四川和云南地区。基于中国未来气候的预测结果显示,2020年,适生范围向西部扩大到西藏中南部,高度适生范围南界向南移至33°N,其中高度适生区范围由29.38%增加至35.1%,增加了5.72%;非适生区有所减少,由35.49%降至30.47%,减少了5.02%。鉴于苜蓿叶象甲在我国的适生性研究结果,建议进一步完善监测预警预报体系,采取相应有效的防控策略,加强对苜蓿叶象甲的防治措施,严防该虫的进一步传播扩散。 |
| 关键词: 苜蓿叶象甲 适生区 CLIMEX ArcGIS 牧草 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2011.06.016 |
| 投稿时间：2011-08-14 |
| 基金项目:现代农业产业技术体系建设项目(CARS-35); 公益性行业(农业)科研专项(201003079); 中国农业大学研究生科研创新专项(KYCX2010017) |
|
| Potential geographical distribution of Hypera posticabased on CLIMEX in China |
|
WU Zhi-gang1, NI Wen-long1, ZHANG Ze-hua2, ZHAO Li3, LI Zhi-hong1
|
| (1.College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;2.Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China;3.College of Agronomy, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Wulumuqi 830052, China) |
| Abstract: |
| The current and future potential geographic distributions of H.postica were studied in this paper by using CLIMEX 3.0 and ArcGIS 9.3.The results showed that:at the current weather conditions,the suitable areas of alfalfa weevil (Hypera postica Gyllenhal) are Xinjiang,Gansu,Neimenggu,southeast Tibet,Sichuan and Yunnan in China.Based on projections of future climate in China showed that in 2020,it’s suitable area would expand to central and southern Tibet.The highly suitable area may southwards to 33 °N.The high suitable area would be increased from 29.38% to 35.1%,difference is 5.72%.Meanwhile,the non-suitable area would be reduced from 35.49% to 30.47%,difference is 5.02%.In order to prevent the further spread of the pest,the quarantine and monitor measures should be enhanced more in China. |
| Key words: Hypera postica potential geographical distribution CLIMEX ArcGIS grass |
