| 摘要: |
| 采用回归、Granger检验、协整检验和Enders-Siklos检验研究生猪价格与玉米价格间的动态调整关系。结果表明:两者呈正相关关系,玉米价格是生猪价格变化的Granger原因。生猪价格与玉米价格存在线性协整关系;Enders-Siklos检验表明两者间存在门限惯性长期均衡关系,生猪价格与玉米价格差减少时的调整速度比增加时的调整速度快。价值规律的作用,政府的不同应对措施和生猪生产过程的特点等是上述结果产生的主要原因。提出了改进生猪价格发布信息平台、普及相关信息到基层养猪农户和广大消费者,以形成良好的市场预期;在影响猪价及引导猪农决策的时候充分考虑两价格之间的非对称调整关系等建议。 |
| 关键词: 玉米 生猪 价格 门限自回归 惯性门限自回归 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2011.01.024 |
| 投稿时间：2010-01-19 |
| 基金项目:浙江工业大学校基金(090110730408); 浙江省社会科学界联合会研究重点课题(2010Z10) |
|
| Research of dynamic adjustment relationship betweenhog price and corn price |
|
XU Xiao-hua1, WU Ren-shui2, HUANG Wei-rong3, SHAO Bi-yun1
|
| (1.College of Business Administration,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,China;2.The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China;3.International College,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,China) |
| Abstract: |
| The purpose of this paper is to research the dynamic relationship between hog price and corn price.The results indicate that there is a positive correlation between the two prices and the corn price is the Granger cause of the hog price.Cointegration test shows that there exists a linear cointegration between hog price s and corn price.Besides,Enders-Siklos test suggests an inertia long-run equilibrium relationship with a threshold exited between them-adjustment speed is higher when the spread of hog prices and corn prices diminishes.The main reasons for that phenomenon include the effect of law of value,different government countermeasures,and the features of hog production process.The paper puts forward some measures for a good market expectations,such as improving Information Publishing Platform of hog market price,widely releasing relevant information to the grassroots pig farmers and the masses of consumers.Besides,it is also vital to give a thorough consideration on asymmetric adjustment between hog prices and corn prices before making any decision s affecting hog prices and guiding pig farmers. |
| Key words: corn hog price threshold autoregression momentum threshold autoregression |
