| 摘要: |
| 以新疆莎车县、沙雅县和阿克苏市棉花单产保险的费率厘定为例,在农作物风险及保险费率厘定理论分析的基础上,通过参数方法和保险精算技术,选择拟合3县(市)棉花单产风险的最优模型,对棉花单产风险4种分布假定下所精算的保险费率与其合理费率进行比较,以分析农作物单产风险分布对保险费率厘定的影响。实证研究结果表明:Logistic分布为拟合3县(市)棉花单产风险的最优分布,3县(市)棉花保险的合理纯费率分别是7.62％、6.32％和4.96％,在正态、正态化和Weibull 3种分布假设下厘定的保险费率均存在误差,幅度从低0.2个百分点到高8个百分点。由此说明,单产风险分布模型的选择直接影响到农作物保险费率厘定的准确性,准确厘定农作物保险费率的关键在于正确选择单产风险分布模型。 |
| 关键词: 单产风险分布 保险费率厘定 模型选择 新疆 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2010.02.020 |
| 投稿时间：2009-07-20 |
| 基金项目:中国农业保险应用(DelPHE ACIC)国际合作项目第一作者:王克,研究实习员,硕士,主要从事农业风险分析和农业保险研究,E-mail:wangke@caas.net.cn通讯作者:张峭,研究员,博士生导师,主要从事农业风险管理和农产品市场研究,E-mail:zhqiao@mail.caas.net.cn |
|
| Influence of flexible crop yield distributions on crop insurance premium rate:A case study on cotton insurance in three counties of Xinjiang Province |
|
WANG Ke1,2, ZHANG Qiao1,2
|
| (1.Key Laboratory of Digital Agricultural Early-warning Technology, Ministry of Agriculture;2.Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academic of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China) |
| Abstract: |
| This paper derives the mathematical relationship between crop yield distribution and the premium of crop yield insurance based on intuitionisticly the Expected Utility theory and the actuary principle, which reveals the contributions of modeling the crop yield risk appropriately by comparing the pure premiums under four candidate parametric distributions with its accurate premium for the cotton yield insurance in three counties of Xinjiang Province. Empirical results show that the Logistic distribution is the best one to fit the cotton yield risk in the three counties; the accurate pure premium ratios of the cotton yield insurance were 7.62%, 6.32% and 4.96%, respectively; and the bias range will be from -0.2% to 8% if the selection of crop yield distributions was unreasonable. It is concluded that the accuracy of premium rate setting depends on the reasonable and appropriate choice of crop yield distributions. |
| Key words: yield risk distribution premium rate setting modeling selecton Xinjiang |
