| 摘要: |
| 为定量评估我国可持续发展状况,本研究在总结以往生态足迹分析方法的基础上,提出一个新的评估可持续发展程度的指标--生态足迹指数.生态足迹指数是指一定区域的生物承载力与生态足迹的差额占生物承载力的百分比,可视为区域为今后保留的可持续发展的能力的百分比;设定其状况可确定可持续发展的关系值：大于0且小于等于100%为弱可持续性和强可持续性,小于0为不可持续性和严重不可持续性,等于0为边际可持续性.由于本方法为单指标分析方法,所以具有较好的分析、比较功能,而且能够为制定或调整可持续发展战略、政策和对策提供定量（百分比）依据.通过计算时间序列上的不同年份的生态足迹指数,可用来反映其可持续发展程度的变动及进行趋势预测,进而提出政策和战略建议.对1962-2001年我国生态足迹指数计算的结果表明：我国生态足迹指数在时间序列上呈显著下降趋势,先从1962年的46%逐步下降到1975年的11%,继而在1975年至1980年之间降为负值,再从1980年的-6%逐步下降到1995年的-62%,达到本期谷底,2001年虽然回升到-45%, 但总的可持续发展状况逐渐恶化,由1962年的强可持续性转变为不可持续性. |
| 关键词: 生态足迹指数 生态足迹 生物承载力 土地资源管理 可持续发展动态评估 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2005.06.168 |
| 投稿时间：2005-07-26 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Dynamic evaluation of China sustainable development based on the ecological footprint index |
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the theory and method of the ecological footprint(EF),ecological footprint index(EFI),is developed as a new indicator for quantitative evaluation of China sustainable development.The index is the percentage of the difference between bio-capacity and ecological footprint in bio-capacity in a region,considered as a remained capacity of sustainable development in the region as well.It can be used for evaluating more exactly the capacities of regional sustainable development.The larger the index indicates the higher sustainable development of the region.In contrary,the smaller the index,the lower sustainable development the region has.EFI=100% indicates non human being disturbance.EFI=0 implies marginal sustainable development.The yearly changes of the index show the changes of regional sustainable development and its tendency.The results of a case study in China showed that the index decreased from 46% in 1962 to46% in 2001,which indicated a decreasing sustainability. |
| Key words: ecological footprint index ecological footprint bio-capacity land resource management dynamic evaluation of sustainable development |
