| 摘要: |
| 利用GTAP模型定量评价加入WTO对我国农产品贸易的影响，重点分析在国际和国内不同的粮食市场条件下我国粮食贸易格局变化。结果表明：中国的粮食市场的变化主要由国内的需求所决定。在经济快速增长导致居民收入大幅度提高的情况下，国内市场需求增长会超过供给增长，从而导致市场粮食价格相对上升。无论是国内还是国际市场粮食供给出现波动时，国内和国际粮食市场价格均会受到影响，这种情况有利于加强国际粮食市场的稳定。在入世后的环境下，我国不会面临重大的国家食物安全风险。但国内市场粮食价格的较大幅度波动会导致农民收入的不稳定，因而需要考虑采用适当的措施来稳定农民的收入。 |
| 关键词: GTAP模型 中国 WTO 粮食市场 农产品 国际贸易 稳定性 食物安全 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2003.05.141 |
| 修订日期：2003-05-23 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Assessment of impacts of China''s entry into WTO on grain market with GTAP model |
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| Abstract: |
| This paper attempts to analyzes the impacts of China's entry to WTO on agriculture quantitatively with GTAP model. The results suggest that China's grain market will develop relies mainly on domestic factors. If Chinese economy continues to grow at high speed, the growth of demands for grains is likely to exceed supply, leading to a rising of domestic prices. Fluctuations in supplies in domestic market or international market will have notable impacts on market prices. To some extent, this will help to stabilize grain market because price mechanism can play its role more effectively to adjust demand and supply. Therefore our country doesn't confront magnificently risks of national food security. However, fluctuations of domestic grain market prices may lead to instability of peasants' income, therefore the government needs to take proper measures to cope with the problem. |
| Key words: GTAP model,agricultural trade,grain market stability,food security |
