| 摘要: |
| 为了提供准确的农业灾害预报，本研究运用混沌理论，以北京历年重大旱灾预报为例，构建了长期灾害混沌预报模型。该模型采用便于描绘混沌事件的三阶差分方程与多因子状态方程联立，模拟出北京市1955－2001年的历次旱灾事件发生过程。按照该模型规定的法则做重大旱灾预测比用单纯统计预测的准确率有显著提高。灾害混沌预报模型可作为长期灾害预测的新途径。 |
| 关键词: 运用 混沌理论 长期灾害 预报模型 农业灾害预报 模型制作 准确率 |
| DOI： |
| 修订日期：2001-12-21 |
| 基金项目: |
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| A Study on Long-term Disaster Forecast Model by Using Chaos Theory |
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| Abstract: |
| Natural disasters are constant threat to Chinese agriculture. Therefore the accuracy of disaster forecast is of vital importance. In this paper, a chaos model for long term disaster forecast was built based on chaos theory, to provide accurate prediction for agricultural disaster by using the data of main drought forecast in Beijing. This model successfully simulated all major drought occurrences happened in Beijing in the period of 1955 to 2001, by applying three step difference equations jointly with multivariant state space equations. The accuracy of proposed model is significantly improved comparing to current statistical methods in major drought forecast. The chaos disaster forecast model provides a new approach for long term disaster forecast. |
| Key words: chaos theory,disaster,long term forecast model |
