| 摘要: |
| 在系统分析影响我国粮食供给与需求的各类主要因素的基础上，应用情景分析法对我国未来粮食供求态势进行了分析，研究了不同情景下各类影响因素对粮食有效供给的可能影响程度。结果表明农业技术研究、应用与推广是解决未来我国粮食问题的关键。 |
| 关键词: 粮食 有效供给 约束因素 情景分析 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家“九五”科技攻关项目 |
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| Analysis of Constraint Factors Affecting Grain Effective Supply in China |
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the systematical analysis of the main factors which affects grain supply anddemand in our country, and by using the scenario analysis method, grain supply trend in the future is analyzed. The extent of various factors which will affect the grain effective supply underdifferent conditions is studied. Results show that the research, application and extension of agri-cultural technology are the key for solving grain problems in the future. |
| Key words: grain,effective supply,restrained factors,scenario analysis |
